Lamar Jackson won five games in a row. The Ravens went from 1-5 to playoff contention. Everyone’s acting like he just saved his season. Here’s the problem: he hasn’t saved anything yet.
Three wins in eight playoff games. Zero Super Bowls. That’s not redemption. That’s a regular-season magician who disappears the moment the stakes actually matter. And this winning streak doesn’t change that math—it just makes everyone forget it long enough to get hurt again.
Jackson ranks 7th in HeyTC’s Daily QB Rankings this week. He’s a top-five guy in September. In January, he’s someone you hope doesn’t face Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. That gap between who he is and who he needs to be isn’t closing. It’s the whole story.
Seven-Year Itch Needs Some February Cool
In the regular season, Jackson is elite. His numbers are pristine during his eight years in Baltimore. The Ravens win regular season games. Fans love him. Fantasy owners draft him early. But the playoffs? The playoffs are a different universe. The defenses are better. The preparation is deeper. And suddenly Jackson looks like a kid playing a man’s game.
| Lamar Jackson | Regular Season | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 74-27 as starter | 3-5 all-time |
| Comp % | 65.2% | 59.2% |
He’s a Highlight Reel in a League That Demands Consistency
Jackson’s seven years in Baltimore have been identical. Lights out when nobody’s watching. Disappear when the temperature drops and the playoff defense shows up. The stat line doesn’t matter in January, only wins matter.
Look at the tape. Against Pittsburgh last January, Jackson had time and didn’t take it. Against Buffalo the year before, he held the ball too long trying to create, took a hit he didn’t need to take, and it changed the momentum. These aren’t aberrations. They’re patterns. They’re who he is when the game slows down and defenses have more time and focus to plan for Jackson.
Compare him to Peyton Manning. Manning was a slightly different quarterback in the playoffs. Worse completion percentage. Fewer explosive plays. But he made it to five Super Bowls because he understood something Jackson still doesn’t: mobility is a liability in January. When cornerbacks have two weeks to prepare, when safeties know your tendencies, scrambling doesn’t save you. It kills you.
Manning stayed patient. He threw into tight windows because he had to. He trusted his arm instead of his feet. Jackson still wants to create with his legs, to buy time, to turn broken plays into 15-yard gains. That works against the Colts. It doesn’t work against Kansas City. And it won’t work when the playoffs start in three weeks and every team has a game plan specifically designed to take away his escape route.
Ravens’ Super Bowl Odds Are Brutal For A Reason
Look at that Super Bowl odds in our Super Bowl Simulator. The Ravens are at 1.70% this week—lower than the Colts, lower than most contenders. That’s not disrespect. That’s the market saying what everyone knows: Jackson isn’t beating Mahomes in a playoff game. He may need to change how he plays, though perhaps maybe he cannot. Jackson is very much like Danny White; great quarterback in Dallas, yet not in the playoffs.
Baltimore’s front office is probably having the conversation right now. Not about moving on from Jackson—that’s too expensive, too complicated. But about whether this window is actually closing. The Ravens have a great defense. They’ve built the right structure. But structure doesn’t matter if your quarterback can’t win in January.
The coming weeks will tell us something, but not what everyone thinks. Not whether Jackson can lead them to the playoffs—he can, that’s easy. But whether he can beat a well-prepared defense when it matters. Whether he’ll finally figure out what Manning knew: sometimes the best play is the boring one.
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