I don’t want to believe it. But I think we’re watching the end of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay.
Three years. Playoffs every time. Two NFC South titles. That’s not nothing. But over the last two seasons? Average. He wins a weak division, sure. January comes and he’s gone. Now he’s 30 with a bum shoulder and the excuses are running thin.
Quarterbacks get wiser as they age, supposedly. Mayfield’s been in his “prime” for three years and hasn’t taken the next step. Turns 31 in April. Fish or cut bait time.
Fantasy Guys Love Him. That’s Part of the Problem.
Baker Mayfield threw 41 touchdowns last year. Locked-in QB1 two seasons running. Volume’s there. Production’s there.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if you’re obsessing over Mayfield’s fantasy stats, you might not actually be a Buccaneers fan.
There, I said it.
Fantasy rewards volume. Championships reward wins. Mayfield racks up the first and chokes on the second.
Mayfield Exposed in the Playoffs
Mayfield’s post-season record in Tampa Bay is 1-2. That Wild Card win over Philly two years back? 32-9. Looked like a different quarterback. Then Detroit bounced him and the Bucs out. Last January, Washington got him 23-20 in a game where he went 15 of 18 and still couldn’t close it out.
Nobody wants to be Kirk Cousins in the playoffs. Mayfield’s not that bad, but he’s on the Dak Prescott highway. Same exit Lamar Jackson almost took before last year’s run saved his reputation, a little bit. Yeah, only one NFL quarterback can lead his team to a a Super Bowl win every year and regular season heroes who disappear when the lights get bright are super common.
| QB | Playoff Record | Pro Bowls | Super Bowls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayfield | 2-3 | 3 | 0 |
| Prescott | 2-5 | 2 | 0 |
| Cousins | 1-4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jackson | 3-5 | 4 | 0 |
Mayfields’s career playoff record is 2-3. Stats look fine. Results don’t. That’s not a fluke after five games.
The Numbers Dropped and Haven’t Come Back
I’m not trying to pile on while he’s hurt. Shoulder sprain. Hope he heals up. But HeyTC’s daily quarterback rankings have him at No. 18 this week. Mayfield peaked at 14 when Tampa started 5-1 and people were throwing around “MVP.” That feels like a year ago. Unfortunately, it was October.
Some of that’s the surrounding injuries—Evans out, Godwin out, Irving missing games. Some of it’s just Baker not hitting throws he was hitting in September.
Half a Percent
That’s Tampa’s Super Bowl shot according to HeyTC’s simulator. A half a percent to win the Super Bowl this year.
They were last in the Super Bowl in 2021 brought to you by Mr. Tom Brady. Since then, it’s been NFC South titles and first-round exits. Hey, four straight division crowns isn’t bad. But the ceiling hasn’t moved. Mayfield hasn’t moved it.
Arizona Shouldn’t Be This Stressful
Mayfield probably sits Sunday. Cardinals are 3-8, lost eight of nine. Should be a gimme. Except nothing’s a gimme when your starter’s in street clothes on the sideline.
Tampa’s 6-5. Still first. Carolina’s right there. Teddy Bridgewater has 33 career wins as a starter—he’s fine. But “fine” doesn’t hold off a division. “fine” doesn’t win in January either, which brings us back to the original problem.
If Bridgewater wins a couple while Baker sits, or if they stumble into a Wild Card and get bounced again, Tampa’s front office has to start asking questions. Real ones. Not the “we believe in our guy” press conference stuff.
Is this the Kirk Cousins loop? Run it back every year until you finally admit what everyone else figured out two seasons ago?
I don’t want to believe it. Pretty sure I already do.
