Sam Darnold is 23-6 over the last two regular seasons. Twenty-three wins. Six losses. That’s a better record than Patrick Mahomes. Better than Josh Allen. Better than Jared Goff. And nobody knows what to do with that information because it’s Sam Darnold, the guy the Jets gave up on, the guy the Panthers couldn’t fix, the same quarterback who wasn’t good enough to back up Brock Purdy.
Now he’s running the NFL’s most efficient offense in Seattle and the only quarterback winning at an elite clip in 2025. Check the Daily QB Rankings and you’ll find Darnold with an Elite season rating—same tier as Mahomes, Hurts, and Goff. The difference? Those guys are 6-6, 8-4, and 7-4 respectively. Darnold is 9-3 and tied for first place in the NFC West.
The same Sam Darnold who threw 39 interceptions in three years with the Jets. Then again… The Jets.
The League Has Flipped Upside Down
Look at this table and tell me something doesn’t feel broken:
| Team | 2024 Record | 2025 Record (Wk 13) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks (Darnold) | 10-7 | 9-3 | +2 wins pace |
| Chiefs (Mahomes) | 15-2 | 6-6 | -6 wins pace |
| Bills (Allen) | 13-4 | 8-4 | -2 wins pace |
| Eagles (Hurts) | 14-3 | 8-4 | -3 wins pace |
| Lions (Goff) | 15-2 | 7-4 | -5 wins pace |
| Vikings (Darnold ’24) | 14-3 | 4-8 | -7 wins pace |
The Seahawks went 10-7 last year with Geno Smith (Smith ranks 5th album on the Seattle’s all-time greats) and missed the playoffs despite a double-digit win total—first team to do that since the NFL expanded to 17 games. This year, with Darnold under center, they’re on pace for 13 wins.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, and Bills are all trending backward. The Vikings, who Darnold carried to 14 wins last season, have completely collapsed without him.
Baker Mayfield Wrote This Playbook First
The comparison everyone wants to make is Baker Mayfield, and for once, the obvious comparison is the right one. Mayfield looked finished after Cleveland. Absolutely cooked. The Panthers stint was a disaster. Then he landed in Tampa with actual receivers, and suddenly he’s a top-10 quarterback making $100 million.
Darnold’s arc is eerily similar but arguably more impressive. Mayfield had two full seasons in Tampa before he got paid. Darnold did it in one year with Minnesota, got a multi-year deal from Seattle, and hasn’t slowed down. His 35 touchdowns in 2024 weren’t a fluke—he’s thrown 18 more this year with five games left. He tied Warren Moon’s franchise record with 17 consecutive completions against Washington. Mike Macdonald called his execution “just ridiculous.”
The difference? Mayfield proved he could do it in January. He took the Bucs to the playoffs twice and won games. Darnold took the Vikings to the postseason last year and immediately face-planted against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Nine sacks. A lost fumble returned for a touchdown. Eighteen of 41 passing for 166 yards in a must-win game against Detroit the week before. The whole thing collapsed.
That memory follows him everywhere.
The Chiefs Are 6-6 and That Changes Everything
Here’s the wild part. Mahomes and the Chiefs entered December at .500 for the first time in his career as a starter. They’re outside the playoff picture. A dynasty that won three straight Super Bowls is watching the season slip away because their offensive line can’t protect anybody and their defense forgot how to stop the run. They lost 31-28 to Dallas on Thanksgiving despite four touchdown passes from Mahomes.
Kansas City has lost six games through 12 weeks. They lost that many total in the previous two seasons combined. Mahomes had never lost three straight games as a starter until this year. The 10-year playoff streak that would have tied the Patriots’ NFL record? Suddenly in jeopardy.
Darnold’s Seahawks just shut out the Vikings 26-0 on Sunday. His former team. The franchise that moved on from him after one year despite 14 wins. The irony is thick enough to taste. Minnesota started Max Brosmer—an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start—and Ernest Jones IV returned an interception 85 yards for a pick-six. Seattle’s defense held Justin Jefferson to two catches for four yards.
Four yards. The league’s second-highest-paid receiver.
The win pushed Seattle to 9-3 and into a first-place tie with the Rams. Darnold didn’t need to be spectacular—16 of 26, 244 yards, two touchdowns—because the defense carried the day. That’s what good teams do. They don’t ask their quarterback to be a hero every week.
Supporting Cast Deserves Credit
Darnold isn’t doing this alone. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards and is chasing Calvin Johnson’s single-season record. Cooper Kupp, acquired to provide veteran stability, had a 67-yard catch against Arizona that showed he’s still got plenty left.
And then there’s the defense. DeMarcus Lawrence said this is the best unit he’s played on in 12 NFL seasons. Come on. Lawrence won a Super Bowl with Dallas. He’s been on some good defenses. But Seattle’s group is suffocating opponents right now—five takeaways against Minnesota, a shutout that was the franchise’s first since 2015. Linebacker Ernest Jones IV already has a career-high four interceptions with six games left.
The infrastructure around Darnold matters. Minnesota had Justin Jefferson and a creative offensive scheme. Seattle has a dominant defense and receivers who can win contested catches. Darnold has always had the arm talent. What he never had been the right situation.
Regular Season Excellence Is Fool’s Gold
And yet. None of this matters if Darnold can’t fix what broke last January. He’s the best regular season quarterback in football over the last 24 months, and that asterisk is doing enormous work in that sentence. The Vikings were 14-3 with the NFC North on the line in Week 18, and he completed 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards in a 31-9 loss to Detroit. Then came the playoff collapse against LA.
Two games. Two disasters. One question that won’t go away until he answers it. Seattle’s Super Bowl odds currently stand at just under three percent with the new gold standard. Can you sim a Super Bowl win with Darnold, even if he can’t? Try it now.
Seattle’s defense looks capable of carrying a playoff run. Mike Macdonald has this unit playing its best football of the season at exactly the right time. But Darnold will face a real defense eventually—probably the Rams in the divisional round if he’s lucky—and we’ll see.
The Redemption Arc Isn’t Complete
The Seahawks have five games left. They’re in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot and control their own destiny in the NFC West with two remaining games against LA. Darnold will almost certainly hit 4,000 yards again and should finish with 25-plus touchdowns. None of that is the story anymore.
The story is what happens when the games actually count. Seattle hosts the Colts next week, then faces the Rams twice down the stretch. December will tell us if this team is a real contender or another mirage. And January will tell us if Sam Darnold is a franchise quarterback or just the best regular season player who never figured out the postseason.
The numbers say he’s elite. The wins say he’s elite. The Daily QB Rankings say he’s elite.
But the playoffs don’t care about regular season numbers. They don’t care about completion percentages or passer ratings or 17-game winning percentages. They care about who shows up when the season is on the line. Darnold hasn’t shown up yet. Not when it mattered most.
He’s answered every question except the one that matters.
