Kenny Pickett sits on the Las Vegas Raiders bench as of today, watching Geno Smith navigate a rocky start to the season. Traded to the Raiders from the Cleveland Browns on August 25 after a brief offseason stint there following his 2024 Eagles year, Pickett brings the same quiet grit that defined Alex Smith’s early struggles as the 2005 No. 1 pick. Smith’s path through benchings and doubt in San Francisco led to steady success with the 49ers and Chiefs; Pickett, now 27, could find that same turning point in Vegas. I see the parallels clear as day—modest beginnings, scheme absorption, and a chance to prove the doubters wrong.
Pickett’s journey echoes Smith’s in ways that scream second chances. Drafted 20th overall by Pittsburgh in 2022, he started strong as a local kid but faced the heat of high expectations. After two seasons with the Steelers, a March 2024 trade sent him to Philadelphia, where he saw limited action in five games last year. Now, behind a Geno Smith throwing seven picks through four weeks, Pickett studies the offense under coordinator Chip Kelly. Patience built Smith’s game; it might just build Pickett’s too, turning the Raiders into contenders by 2026.
The Weight of Expectations: Pickett’s Pittsburgh Pressure Cooker
Pittsburgh drafted Pickett with dreams of a franchise face, but the reality proved tougher. In 2022, he took over midseason, starting 12 games with a 63.0% completion rate, 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns, and nine interceptions. The Steelers leaned run-heavy, and defenses stuffed his short throws.
His 2023 sophomore year brought slight gains—12 starts, 62.0% completions for 2,070 yards, only four passing touchdowns, and six picks as inconsistency lingered. Pickett’s arm talent flashed, yet footwork issues and conservative reads drew fire. By season’s end, whispers of a change grew loud.
From Steel City to Philly: The 2024 Eagles Detour
The March 2024 deal to Philadelphia swapped Pickett for a third-round pick, landing him behind Jalen Hurts as a backup with upside. Last year, he appeared in five games, starting one, completing 25 of 42 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Those snaps came in mop-up duty, sharpening his timing in a spread scheme.
Eagles fans barely noticed, but scouts did—his quick release stood out in practice. Still, with Hurts entrenched, Pickett’s role stayed small. That March 2025 trade to Cleveland felt like another reset, though he never suited up for the Browns before the August move to Vegas. These pit stops test resolve; Pickett’s stayed intact.
Alex Smith’s San Francisco Saga: From Bust Label to Bay Area Backbone
Alex Smith stepped into the NFL as Utah’s spread star, the top pick in Mike Nolan’s rebuild. His 2005 rookie year? Seven starts, one touchdown, 11 picks, and a shoulder injury that ended it early. The 49ers finished 4-12, and the bust talk started immediately.
Rookie Year Nightmares and Injury Shadows
Injuries dogged Smith from day one. That fractured shoulder limited him to four games after the opener, where he threw for 144 yards and a pick. Nolan’s offense clashed with Smith’s pocket style, and the line crumbled. San Francisco’s defense leaked points, but Smith caught the blame. I recall the frustration in his postgame clips—poised, but pained.
Benchings and Trade Rumors: The QB Carousel’s Cruel Spin
Smith’s 2007 brought more pain: 48.7% completions over seven starts, two touchdowns, four picks, and another injury-riddled 5-11 finish. Trent Dilfer picked up some of the pieces at quarterback for the 49ers, yet it would be the last of Dilfer and Nolan in San Francisco.
Pickett knows that bench sting too. He sat behind Mitch Trubisky in 2022 before grabbing the job, only to hand it to Mason Rudolph late. In Philly last year, Hurts’ shadow loomed large. These moments aren’t defeats; they’re lessons in observation. Smith’s 2009 benching behind Shaun Hill taught him protections; Pickett’s Vegas clipboard time does the same.
Smith’s Harbaugh Pivot: Scheme, Stability, and Sudden Success
Jim Harbaugh changed everything in 2011. Smith locked in as starter in a pro-style system that fit his accuracy and smarts, hitting 61.3% completions for 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five picks. The 49ers went 13-3, with Smith engineering five game-winning drives.
That efficiency wasn’t sexy, but it won. Harbaugh drilled pocket presence and progressions—skills Smith mastered after years watching.
Pickett’s Vegas Voyage: Trading Browns for Black Hole Buzz
The August 25 trade from Cleveland—a straight swap for a 2026 fifth-rounder—freed Pickett from another backup role. Vegas, fresh off a 4-13 2024, signed Geno Smith in free agency for stability.
Smith started strong in Week 1 against New England. But Weeks 2-4 soured: forced passes, mobility lapses, and turnovers galore. Through four games, he’s at 948 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions, dropping to number 25 in our Daily QB Rankings. Fans murmur for change; Pickett listens from the sideline.
Geno’s Slump: Pickett’s Unexpected Apprenticeship
Geno’s 2025 mirrors his career peaks and dips—flashes of arm strength, then errors. His Week 4 outing against the Bears: three picks in a 25-24 loss at home.
Pickett thrives in this setup, much like Smith behind backups. No ego, just film study and practice reps. Raiders scouts praise his pre-snap reads. If Geno falters further, Pickett could enter by Week 6—his watching and learning in Philadelphia last year was so valuable. Vegas’s defense, with Maxx Crosby, gives breathing room.
Stats Side-by-Side: Early Careers Under the Microscope
Pro Football Reference data highlights the echoes. Smith’s first three years: 19 touchdowns to 31 picks over 30 starts. Pickett in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia: 15 TDs to 14 INTs across 25 starts.
| Quarterback | Years | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 2005-07 | 19 | 31 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2022-24 | 15 | 14 |
Smith’s 2011 surge to a 17-5 ratio shows what’s possible. Pickett’s glimpses suggest he’s on deck.
HeyTC’s Take: Where Pickett Stands in 2025 Daily QB Rankings
Patrick Mahomes tops our Daily QB Rankings list for his playoff mastery and nine-year Chiefs run, while Jalen Hurts sits second for dual-threat excellence over six Eagles seasons. Geno Smith lingers at 20th, propped by early arm zip but hammered by interceptions.
Pickett doesn’t crack the top 25 yet—fair for a backup—he’s 40th, edging contemporaries like Zach Wilson and Will Levis. Smith’s pre-2011 ranks looked similar: ignored until he delivered. HeyTC values the grind; Pickett’s climb starts now.
History’s Verdict: Why Patience Turns QBs into Pillars
Smith’s Chiefs chapter proves the point. Acquired in 2013, over five years, 17,608 yards, 102 touchdowns, and 33 picks across 50 wins. His 2017 Pro Bowl: 67.5% completions, 4,042 yards, 26 TDs to five INTs. Andy Reid built on that base for Mahomes.
Pickett deserves that leash. Raiders GM Tom Telesco eyes development; a top-10 2026 pick looms, but why not grow internal? I’ve seen rushed timelines burn out talents like Baker Mayfield. Smith’s arc shows the patient path pays.
Pickett’s Potential Playoffs: Silver and Black Alchemy in 2026?
Picture Pickett stepping up midseason: 65% completions, RPOs with Zamir White, strikes to Meyers. The Raiders’ 1-3 start, anchored by Crosby’s rush, sets up a wild-card push comeback with QB steadiness.
My projection: Pickett starts six games in 2025 leading to a Raiders 8-9 overall. By 2026, he’s the anchor—much like Smith’s 2012 NFC title drive. The Black Hole hungers for hope; Pickett carries the spark.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Kenny Pickett started any games for the Raiders in 2025?
No, Kenny Pickett has not started or appeared in any regular-season games for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025 as of today. He joined via trade in late August and has focused on practice and preseason prep.
How does Geno Smith’s 2025 performance compare to his career norms?
Geno Smith’s 2025 Raiders stint lags his 2022-23 highs: 948 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions through four games. His turnover woes, including three picks in Week 4, echo past inconsistencies despite strong arm flashes
What were Alex Smith’s stats in his breakout 2011 season?
Alex Smith posted 61.3% completions for 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2011, guiding the 49ers to 13-3 and an NFC Championship berth—his first Pro Bowl selection.
Why was Kenny Pickett traded to the Raiders?
The Raiders grabbed Pickett from the Browns on August 25, 2025, for a 2026 fifth-round pick to add depth behind Geno Smith. After a quiet offseason in Cleveland post-Eagles, his affordable deal fit as a low-stakes option.
Can the Raiders make the playoffs with Pickett as starter in 2026?
Yes, it’s feasible. Backed by a stout defense and rising offense, Pickett’s projected 65% completions and 3,500 yards could drive 10 wins, akin to Alex Smith’s role in Kansas City’s rise.
This is AI-Assisted Content (AIAC)—developed with human oversight and blending the author’s original ideas, initial drafts, and final edits.
